Friday, July 30, 2010

ACDP believes Markinor statistics about its growth

Politics is a funny thing. Sometimes hilarious, and at other times very sad! Politics is about numbers.

Politicians, by high numbers are made glad,
The same, by low numbers are made gloomy and sad.
The latest Markinor opinion poll has been released and some parties are happier than others about this opinion poll.

ACDP President, Kenneth Meshoe
One of those parties that has shown gladness at the results is the ACDP. The president of the ACDP, Kenneth Meshoe said in a party news release:
"The Markinor results are very pleasing and show the ACDP to be growing which is not evident for other opposition parties.

"This growth confirms that the ACDP is the party of the future; we believe the DA has reached its glass ceiling and note recent comments by various political analysts who stated that the ID would have ceased to exist had it not joined up with the DA.
"

Of course, I have been voting for the ACDP since 1994, and I will continue to do so, unless I find serious ethical issues developing in the party. So, what I am about to say must not be seen as dissing the party at all! However, reality stares us in the face, and it can't be found in a Markinor opinion poll.

Opinion pollsters like Markinor hardly ever prove anything, and to think that these polls that they take among our population has any meaning at all, is to distance oneself from reality! Markinor says in its report on this poll that it "conducted its latest opinion poll in May 2010 – a nationally representative study of 3 386 South Africans of 18 years and older." Now let's make this clear. They conducted a poll on the opinion of the nation which currently stands at a population of about 49 000 000, among 3 386 people! I will spare you the calculation. That is 0.0069% of the population, and Markinor reckons, there is a margin of error of 0.7-1.67%! Who are they trying to fool? How in the world can 3 386 people be representative of South African opinion at all?

If Kenneth Meshoe said that we should not use any type of opinion poll among a non-representative group of people as a measuring yardstick of party growth, my opinion of him would have grown immensely. However, the fact that he put any credence to the poll at all leaves a bitter taste in my mouth!

The best way to measure the growth of the party is definitely not in opinion polls. People's opinions are like desert sand. When the winds pick up the sand will get blown here and there. The indicator that shocked most, especially within the party is the general elections of 2009, in which votes for the ACDP fell 50% from 1.6% of the national vote in 2004 to 0.81% in 2009. In 2004, the ACDP received 250 272 of the national vote, and in 2009 only 142 658 votes.

This is not all. Since, more people voted nationally in 2009 (2.1m more than in 2004), the omen for the ACDP should have been greater than just halving its votes in percentage points. In order for them to simply have come up with an equal voting percentage in 2009 as in 2004, they should have received around 286 719 of the national votes. So, they did not only lose 107 614 votes from the 2004 to the 2009 elections, they also lost an additional 36 447 potential votes. That means they lost 144 061votes! That is the population of a town! A little Markinor poll of 0.0069% of the population proves nothing and any hopes should not be based on an insignificant poll compared to a national election that showed that there are serious shortcomings in the party's influence on the nation!

It is plain, and obvious to all that the nation does not think that the ACDP has anything to offer it! What the nation is looking for I do not know! Somehow the ACDP has to do its homework and find out how they can make inroads into the minds and hearts of the people of South Africa.

Our trust should remain in the Lord Jesus Christ for a better South Africa, and not in opinion polls. Somehow, I do not think that South Africa's future is dependent on the winning or losing of a political party, but in the proclamation of the gospel to it people. It is the gospel that will bring change to the country, not moralizing by political parties.

Don't get me wrong, there is a place for political parties in the scheme of things. If God could use a donkey to speak to Balaam, surely he can use political parties!

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